A Rapidly Strengthening Winter Storm Could Impact the SouthCoast

The SouthCoast will be keeping an eye on this weekend's forecast, as a rapidly intensifying winter storm could bring snow and strong winds to the region. According to 12 News Meteorologist T.J. Del Santo, the storm has the potential to undergo bombogenesis, a process where a storm strengthens very quickly as it moves offshore.

What Is Bombogenesis

Bombogenesis refers to a storm that rapidly intensifies, often strengthening dramatically in a short period of time as it moves over the ocean. Del Santo said this storm is expected to bomb out as it tracks off the Carolina coastline late Saturday into Sunday.

When Will the Storm Impact the SouthCoast

Del Santo said the system is forecast to rapidly intensify late Saturday night and into Sunday. The biggest question right now is how close it comes to southern New England. Current thinking suggests it will come close enough to affect the SouthCoast, though exact impacts remain uncertain.

Where Snow Totals Could Be Highest

Snow is part of the forecast, but how much falls will depend heavily on the storm’s track. Del Santo said the best chance for six inches or more appears to be across Cape Cod and the Islands. Areas farther west, including New Bedford, Fall River, and up toward Taunton, have a lower but still notable chance for accumulating snow. The odds drop off even more across much of Rhode Island. He cautioned that those amounts could increase if the storm shifts closer to the coast.

Wind May Be the Bigger Concern

Wind could end up being the bigger story. Del Santo said gusts of 40 to 50 miles per hour are possible on Sunday, which could lead to blowing snow and reduced visibility. Even lighter snowfall combined with strong winds could make travel difficult throughout the day.

Why Forecast Models Still Disagree

As of Thursday morning, forecast models were still showing disagreement. The American model has flipped back and forth, at times showing a significant hit and at other times pushing the storm farther offshore. The European model has been more consistent in showing snow and strong winds for the region. The Canadian model, meanwhile, shows little to no snow, though windy conditions would still be likely.

Del Santo said higher resolution data arriving later tonight and into Friday morning should help narrow down the forecast. For now, he advises residents to plan for at least some snow and a windy Sunday.